Even as cement companies continue to announce ambitious expansion plans, analysts turn cautious over the sector as incremental supply is expected to coincide with a weak demand growth period, and other headwinds of higher fuel costs, weak monsoons and general elections. In August, JSW Cement said it will take its current 19 million tonnes (MT) capacity to 60 MT in the next five years. The country's top producers have massive expansion plans underway - UltraTech Cement targeting 200 MT, Adani Cement aiming for 140 MT and Dalmia Cement planning for 110-130 MT.
The slowdown in private consumption in the economy is taking a toll on the growth of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). The net sales growth of listed FMCG companies hit a 14-quarter low of 2.5 per cent in October-December 2023 (Q3FY24). This is the lowest revenue growth for the industry since the June 2020 quarter, when the FMCG firms in the Business Standard sample had reported a 13.2 per cent Y-o-Y decline in combined net sales owing to the lockdown.
Traversing from being just vehicle manufacturers to mobility solutions providers amid a raging debate over which eco-friendly technology must be incentivised, the Indian automobile industry is driving in the new year under the shadow of a slowdown in sales with the post-pandemic pent-up demand in distant memory. The shift in the auto industry -- where advanced technologies like autonomous driving, vehicle intelligence, connected features and electrification are quickly gaining traction -- will be reflected in the upcoming Bharat Mobility Global Expo in which India's flagship Auto Expo has been clubbed to be held from January 17-22, 2025 in Delhi-NCR.
'In addition, we have geopolitics and politics and all the other things that will affect commodity prices.'
Although UltraTech Cement's results for the December quarter of the current financial year (Q3FY25) were not an improvement compared to Q3FY24, the company managed to surpass Street expectations. The company's profit attributable to the owners of the parent dropped 17.4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 1,469.5 crore in Q3FY25 as against Rs 1,777 crore in Q3FY24.
As the Union Budget 2025-2026 (FY26) inches closer, the Indian real estate industry is seeking stamp duty cuts, revised home loan limits and updated affordable housing norms through Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY), single-window clearance and eco-friendly policies, among others. Industry leaders and consultancy firms, including Anarock, Raheja, Gaurs, Kanodia Group, Reach, Urban Space, Justo and Eros Group, have shared their expectations.
Sales of diesel-powered utility vehicles have been declining in the past six months as the differential between petrol and diesel prices narrowed.
Since its results, the stock of bottling and beverage distribution company Varun Beverages (VBL) is up 7 per cent on the back of a strong 2022-23 January-March quarter performance, robust outlook, and revision in profit estimates. Given the sharp uptick, it is now part of the trillion-rupee club, with its market capitalisation at Rs 1.01 trillion. The stock is one of the best performers in the consumer space as well as the S&P BSE 200, of which it is a constituent.
The festival season has already begun in the west and south of India with Ganesh Chaturthi and Onam, respectively, and consumer companies are witnessing a pick-up in sales compared to pre-Covid levels. Retailers, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and consumer durables companies expect their sales to grow in double digits this festival season compared to pre-pandemic times, as there are no curbs on movement now. Adani Wilmar expects sales volume to be higher by 15-20 per cent as rural India has largely witnessed good monsoon rains, and employment has picked up in urban areas.
Berger Paints, the country's second-largest decorative paint maker, continued to outperform its peers and gain market share in the 2023-24 (FY24) October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3). The company posted a consolidated revenue growth of 7 per cent compared to the year-ago quarter, surpassing Asian Paints (5.4 per cent) and Kansai Nerolac Paints (5.7 per cent).
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
Pune Police have announced a reward of Rs 1 lakh for information leading to the arrest of a history-sheeter who allegedly raped a 26-year-old woman inside a state transport bus at the Swargate bus station. The accused, Dattatray Ramdas Gade (37), is on the run since the incident which took place on early Tuesday morning. He has half a dozen cases of theft, robbery and chain-snatching registered against him in Pune and adjoining Ahilyanagar district, and was out on bail since 2019 in one of the offences.
The data for individual weighted received premium (WRP) showed divergent trends for life insurers in December 2024. Overall, the industry's individual WRP grew 4.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y); LIC's individual WRP declined 13 per cent while private players saw 11.4 per cent growth.
'When so many young Baloch men and women are willingly volunteering as fighters and even suicide bombers.'
Automobile, apparel and electronics are among sectors that see a sales boost during the festival season, a time when investors expect gains in related stocks. This year could be different: Analysts have factored in all positives and do not expect such stocks to deliver lucrative returns. "Indian households spend across sectors like automobiles, consumer durables, and consumer staples during the festival season.
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
Passenger vehicle retail sales in India witnessed a 10 per cent on-year jump in July driven by new model launches and enhanced discounts, industry body FADA said on Monday. Total passenger vehicle retail sales rose to 3,20,129 units in July, as compared to 2,90,564 units in July 2023. "Dealers reported benefits from good product availability, attractive schemes, and a wider range of products," the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) vice president C S Vigneshwar said in a statement.
'Wherever the government has provided incentives for the purchase of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, cars, buses, and trucks, it gets a push for most of these alternate fuels. '
Passenger vehicle sales in India touched a record high of 41.08 lakh units in 2023, growing by 8.3 per cent over the previous year driven by SUVs, which accounted for almost half of the total dispatches from manufacturers to dealers. The record sales have been achieved despite an increase in the average price of vehicles to Rs 11.5 lakh last year as compared to Rs 10.58 lakh in 2022. Market leader Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai Motor India, Tata Motors and Toyota Kirloskar Motor reported their best-ever annual sales in 2023.
More than 50 per cent of SIP accounts come from semi-urban and rural areas.
Could the MPCE survey results be used as a basis of reconstructing the Consumer Price Index with new weights, asks Madan Sabnavis.
'Markets could face uncertainty in the short to medium term.' 'It would be prudent to invest in alternative asset classes, especially debt, for about a year.' 'Bank fixed deposits are offering rates as high as 9 per cent per annum and these can be used as a great hedging tool until equity markets stabilise.'
The 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter performance of the country's largest listed paint companies was better than Street expectations. Asian Paints, Berger Paints, and Kansai Nerolac Paints (Kansai Nerolac) registered double-digit revenue growth, compared with the year-ago quarter, reinforced by strong volume/value growth. Falling raw material prices also helped the paint majors hoist their gross margins.
Flipkart's hyper-value e-commerce platform Shopsy is intensifying efforts to tap over half of the 821 million internet users (about 442 million) in rural India. These efforts are being led by Prathyusha Agarwal, who recently joined as business head at Shopsy. The aim is to become the go-to destination for consumers seeking entry-level products across various categories.
The automobile sector is considered a good indicator of economic health. It has a very long value chain, from primary materials, like metals, glass and plastic, to value-added high-end electronic components, specialised alloys, and software.
Market experts say that of the total 600,000 villages in India, under two per cent or around 10,000 villages contribute to about half of the rural consumption in the country. Targeting these villages and ensuring that penetration is strong is key for most consumer goods companies.
Gold was Rs 28,100 per 10 gm on July 26, 2014.
Overall market reaction to the Budget was neutral. Investors absorbed the changes to the tax rates (positive for salaried class) and capital gains taxes (CGTs, negative due to the removal of indexation and increases. Other proposals largely pertain to supporting rural development, buybacks taxed as dividends, Custom duty changes that impact multiple sectors, higher outlays for clean energy, etc. There's some moderation in the growth of capex outlay across defence, fer
'The BJP lacks a credible mass leader who matches Mamata Banerjee's popularity.' 'Given the division of votes among Opposition parties, the West Bengal government's dole-giving strategy, and the consolidation of the poor, significant sections of scheduled caste groups and Muslim minorities behind the ruling party, it will be difficult to dislodge the Trinamool from power.'
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
With all the evasions, one assertion made by the Pune (Rural) police stood out: They had found no connection of the Elgar Parishad with the violent incidents of January 1, 2018. Yet, the case against the 'Bhima Koregaon 16', which is based on exactly this alleged connection, continues, and seven of the accused continue to be behind bars under the UAPA, explains Jyoti Punwani.
'We will see a lot of investments from the private sector.' 'As long as we are not impacted by some global events, I think we will be in a strong place.'
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
With sales of cooling products turning out dismal this summer due to unseasonal rains, the stocks of related companies are now off their March highs. Shares of fan and air conditioner makers such as Voltas, Symphony, Orient Electric, Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning and Crompton Greaves are down 5-23 per cent since March when the summer season saw a firm onset. In comparison, the BSE Sensex index is up 10 per cent.
Mortgage finance remains a structural growth opportunity in India with a policy focus on affordable housing, housing shortages, low mortgage penetration, and rising incomes as drivers. Affordable Housing Finance Companies (AHFCs) serve the mass market, low-income segments, which is the least-serviced category, and to operate in this segment, the mortgage provider needs good assessment skills. AHFCs and HFCs have also been increasing exposure in other mortgage segments (loan against property, developer loans among others).
Auto majors Maruti Suzuki India and Hyundai reported muted sales performance in October as the companies curtailed dispatches to dealers in order to cut inventory build up.
It's all eyes on the consumer durables sector during the festival season after a weak Q1FY24 and Q2FY24 was impacted by an erratic monsoon. Traditionally, this period sees the highest number of purchases. Dealers and manufacturers are complaining about low business-to-consumer (B2C) off-take during the first half.
Among the key concerns of the Street is market share losses in growth segments, led by higher competitive pressures.
After lagging behind other segments in the automotive (auto) space over the past few years, two-wheelers are expected to reverse their volume underperformance. After witnessing a 36.3 per cent volume decline over the 2018-19 (FY19) through 2021-22 (FY22) periods, the sector staged a recovery in 2022-23 (FY23), with volumes rising 17 per cent. While volumes are still a quarter lower than the FY19 peak of 21 million units, a double-digit growth trajectory is expected to prolong.
With Onam and Raksha Bandhan just around the corner, the festival season is ready to kick off in full swing. As people embrace the celebratory spirit, companies anticipate a surge in sales this year. Consumer durables firms are expecting strong growth of 40-50 per cent in the premium segment during the upcoming season. Appliance makers also foresee increased demand for cooling appliances - refrigerators and air conditioners - which were impacted by unseasonal rainfall.
